Run-On Sentence: Remedies for Erroneous Career Offender Enhancements

Guilty pleas have come to resolve all but a fraction of federal criminal cases. So for most federal defendants, sentencing is the criminal justice process’s most important phase. That phase begins with the calculation of a recommended sentencing range based on the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines. If a defendant has previously committed two violent crimes or drug offenses, the Guidelines designate him a career offender and drastically enhance his recommended sentencing range. The range is only advisory, but judges must consult and account for the range, and it plays an unquestionably significant role in the defendant’s ultimate sentence. What if the Supreme Court later clarifies that the defendant’s crimes were not career offender predicates after all? What if the correct inputs would have yielded a shorter sentence? This Note examines remedies for mistakes like erroneously applying the career offender enhancement. It begins by exploring the federal sentencing system’s background and the available remedies for sentencing errors in general, including some remedies grounded in a due process right to be sentenced based on accurate information. It discusses sentencing and appellate-review practices since the Supreme Court made the Guidelines advisory, and observes how courts of appeals have treated those practices—erroneous career offender enhancements are generally curable on direct appeal, but recent appellate decisions have denied relief to prisoners who are subjected to the same errors but whose sentences had already become final. This discussion concludes by scrutinizing those cases and discussing them in the context of concerns for due process and fundamental fairness

Multiple Equilibria and Endogenous Persistence in a Dynamic Model of Employment

In this paper, I consider whether: (1) a dynamic forward-looking model with multiple equilibria can generate persistent fluctuations without persistent sunspots; and (2) indeterminacy is important for these persistent fluctuations. The answer to the first question is a tentative no. The answer to the second question is yes. Extending the approach of Howitt and McAfee (1988, 1992), I work with a dynamic model of long-term employment. In this framework, search externalities allow both hiring and not hiring to comprise symmetric Nash equilibria for some values of the i.i.d. hiring cost. Following Cooper (1994), firms implement the hiring strategy of the previous period unless the realized hiring cost makes a change in strategy the dominant strategy. Calibrating the model, I find that with plausible functional forms, the selection rule can lead to persistent economic episodes only if one uses counterfactual parameters. Turning to the second question, I estimate that the economy has multiple equilibria, in the sense that the current hiring decision depends on the previous hiring decision, around 41 percent of the time. Moreover, I find that without some indeterminacy, the model can not generate expansions and recessions that are both persistent

Abundances determined using Si II and Si III in B-type stars: evidence for stratification

It is becoming clear that determination of the abundance of Si using lines of Si II and Si III can lead to quite discordant results in mid to late B-type stars. The difference between the Si abundances derived from the two ion states can exceed one dex in some cases. We have carried out a study intended to clarify which kinds of B stars exhibit this discrepancy, to try to identify regularities in the phenomenon, and to explore possible explanations such as abundance stratification by comparing models to observed spectra. We used spectra from the ESPaDOnS spectropolarimeter and FEROS spectrograph, supplemented with spectra from the ESO and ELODIE archives, of magnetic Bp, HgMn, and normal B-type stars ranging in effective temperature from about 10500 to 15000 K. Using these spectra, we derived abundances using the spectrum synthesis program ZEEMAN which can take into account the influence of magnetic fields. For each star, accurate abundances of Si II, Si III, Ti, Cr, and Fe were derived. All magnetic Bp stars in our sample show a discordance between the derived abundances of the first and second ions of silicon, with the latter being between 0.6 - 1.7 dex higher. The same behaviour is observed in the non-magnetic stars but to a much smaller extent: Si III is enhanced by between 0.3 - 0.8 dex compared to Si II.We do not detect the discrepancy in three stars, HD 22136 (normal), HD 57608 (HgMn) and HD 27295 (HgMn); these are the only stars in our sample for which the microturbulence parameter is significantly different from zero, and which therefore probably have convection occurring in their atmospheres. We find that vertical stratification of silicon in the atmospheres of B-type stars may provide an explanation of this phenomenon, but our detailed stratification models do not completely explain the discrepancies, which may, in part, be due to non-LTE effects.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in A&

The effects of health insurance and self-insurance on retirement behavior

Using an estimable dynamic programming model of retirement behavior, this paper assesses the relative importance of Medicare and Social Security in determining job exit rates at age 65. Of central importance is whether individuals value health insurance benefits not just for the reduction in average medical expenses, but also for the reduction in the volatility of medical expenses. To address this problem the model accounts explicitly for the effects of health cost volatility and health insurance on retirement behavior. By including a savings decision within the model, we allow for the possibility that individuals can self-insure against health cost shocks. Self-insurance potentially reduces an individual's valuation of health insurance. Using data from the Health and Retirement Survey, we find that the reduction in expected medical expenses explains 75% of a typical individual's valuation of health insurance, with the reduction in volatility explaining the remaining 25%. We find that shifting the Medicare eligibility age to 67 will delay age of retirement. However, shifting the Social Security normal retirement age to 67 will cause a larger retirement delay than shifting the Medicare eligibility age to 67.Insurance, Health ; Medical care

The Effects of Health Insurance and Self-Insurance on Retirement Behavior

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the effects of employer-provided health insurance, Medicare, and Social Security on retirement behavior. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we estimate a dynamic programming model of retirement that accounts for both saving and uncertain medical expenses. Our results suggest that Medicare is important for understanding retirement behavior, and that uncertainty and saving are both important for understanding the labor supply responses to Medicare. Half the value placed by a typical worker on his employer-provided health insurance is the value of reduced medical expense risk. Raising the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 67 leads individuals to work an additional 0.074 years over ages 60-69. In comparison, eliminating two years worth of Social Security benefits increases years of work by 0.076 years.

On the Distribution and Dynamics of Health Costs

Using data from the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) and Assets and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old (AHEAD), this paper presents estimates of the stochastic process that determines both the distribution and dynamics of health costs. We find that the data generating process for health costs is well represented by an ARMA(1,1). Furthermore, innovations to this process are close to lognormally distributed. In any given year, .1% of our sample receives a health cost shock that costs at least $80,000 in present value. Lastly, we discuss the accuracy of numerical solutions when integrating over health costs. Assuming lognormality, simple approximation rules work well.

Skill-Biased Technical Change and the Cost of Higher Education: An Exploratory Model

We document trends in higher education costs and tuition over the past 50 years. To explain these trends, we develop and simulate a general equilibrium model with skill- and sector-biased technical change. We assume that higher education suffers from Baumol's (1967) service sector disease, in that the quantity of labor and capital needed to educate a student is constant over time. Calibrating the model, we show that it can explain the rise in college costs between 1959 and 2000. We then use the model to perform a number of numerical experiments. We find, consistent with a number of studies, that changes in the tuition discount rate have little long-run effect on college attainment.

Colourful stories: exploring the transformative potential of colour culture in a Northumbrian mining town

2014 will see the opening of a new £100m factory in Ashington, a former mining town in Northumbria, UK. The global paint manufacturer AkzoNobel wants to ensure its investment creates not only regeneration through employment but also broader, long-term health and wellbeing improvements, through the life-enhancing qualities of colour. Committed to transforming lives through colour, they are continually striving for innovative ways to engage local communities in transformative application of colour to the built environment. This paper describes successes of the firm’s global Let’s Colour programme, as well as the Northumberland project, its methodology, preliminary findings and proposals. The best will be developed and implemented over three years from 2014